The arrival of the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to New Delhi brings forth a range of issues that holds ground both for India and the US. As external affairs minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar sits down for a bilateral with our American counterpart, the aim will be to inject a new energy into a relationship that seems to have been enveloped in crisis. Well, argument about the usage of word “crisis” might surface, but it is worth noting that there have been recent occurrences of divergence over certain issues. Even as geo-strategic issues converge, relations in the economic sphere have remained testy between both the countries.
For nearly two decades, Delhi and Washington had shed their Cold war differences and expanded the ambit of their bilateral and multilateral cooperation. Part of the reason includes the rise of the revisionist power such as China, about whom both India and US share common ground. But, differences once again dominate the public narrative. These range from trade and market access, to cross border data flows and India’s purchase of oil from Iran and advanced weapons from Russia.
On this front, this piece takes stock of the threemost potent issues that will be on the table:
Trade tensions
For the White House behemoth who perceives every relationship in a transactional sense, trade seems to be the signature issue. The sharp convergence of US-India on geo-strategic issues has unfortunately seen trade ties deteriorate under the Trump administration. For instance, Trump has often termed India as “tariff king,” citing high tariffs imposed on items such as the Harley Davidson. Indian exporters recently lost preferential access to American markets for several products and the US seems bent on equal tariffs on both sides on tradable goods. It is very likely that Pompeo will discuss tough topics with his Indian counterpart such as GSP, trade barriers for American companies and data localisation. On the latter, it is likely that US might face resistance, since India has explicitly vouched for localisation of data i.e. data to be stored within the geographical parameters of the country.
Oil
The volatility in crude oil and its impact on Indian consumers is also a potential issue to feature in the discussions. The visit comes in the backdrop of the increasing tensions in West Asia, with the US tightening its screws on Iran. The West Asian country has for so long been one of India’s top oil suppliers, exporting 23.5 million tones in financial year 2018-19. Though India can source oil from other sources, for instance, the US is a likely partner, but the price at which the oil will be brought would hurt the Indian economy. A formidable example includes the time that would be taken for tankers from the US to reach India. While ships can economically sail from the Gulf to India carrying oil quantities as low as 60 to 40 tonnes, a journey from the US could only be possible in large tankers. Also, voyages from US would take around 50 days,while those from West Asia usually take around eight to ten days.
On terrorism and Afghanistan
Beyond business, the emphasis will also include taking a common view on the conflict brewing in the west of India. While prospects of oil imports from US-blockaded Iran appear negligible,Washington may have no problems with India’s assets in Iran’s Chabahar port, a project that would establish trade linkages with Afghanistan. In this, India would like the US troops to stay in Afghanistan and stabilize the country, rather than cut a deal with Taliban. New Delhi is not happy with the talks that the US is having with the Taliban that could possible indicate full withdrawal of the US troops in the region. India’s Afghanistan policy is majorly driven by pursuit to stymie Islamabad’s influence in the region, where a Taliban-led government could quickly side with Pakistan. The subject of terrorism thus makes it an inescapable feature in the talks, as Pakistan’s influence in Afghanistan will not only reduce India’s sphere of influence, but also make India more susceptible to Pakistani-inspired terrorism in the wider region.
Thus, it is widely apparent that given the present status, where both Indiaand the US are at the crossroads of various issues, it is imperative for both to iron out the contentious aspects of it. In this, a non-ideological approach to the negotiations would focus on breaking the irritants to smaller parts, expanding the boundary conditions and creating linkages across sectors. If Washington views this relationship through the prism of transactionalism, then it could wreck havoc for both the countries. In all, the ball is in DC’s court and it is for them to decide.
India Outbound
June 27, 2019
source https://indiaoutbound.org/pompeos-visit-to-india-what-holds-for-the-india-us-ties/
No comments:
Post a Comment