Debates around the Indian elections are often focused on domestic issues like rural distress, economic malfeasance and so on, while the issue of India’s foreign policy is relegated to the margins. But, the 2019 elections changed the popular discourse. Building upon the narrative of being the country’s watchman or the chowkidar, Modi successfully bucked this trend where he won the mandate on the premise of foreign policy and security issues.
Modi may not have paid much attention to foreign policy issues during the 2014 campaign, but his foreign policy record has so far been impressive. While in office, Modi has made 48 foreign trips and visited as many as 92 countries. In addition to his widespread outreach, Modi has also displayed an extraordinary international activism that made many analysts argue that he has dramatically altered the foreign policy landscape. Arguably, not since former minister Nehru’s long tenure, India has been so engaged in wide ambit of issues, ranging from climate change to strategic realignments, which made foreign policy analyst C. Raja Mohan suggest that Modi’s foreign policy had been “revolutionary.”
Modi has enjoyed a string of successes, by unleashing a series of foreign policy measures such as the Neighbourhood First and Act East policies, maintenance of a partnership with the US and a hyperbolic Trump, building of a strategic partnership with Japan to advance the intra-Asian balancing of China, to name a few. Moreover, his outreach towards the Sunni Arab states to realize the country’s economic potential and harbouring personal ties with leaders from countries such as Israel have indeed reaped great dividends.
For all his successes, however Modi has been unable to overcome Machiavelli’s Fortuna. Thus, great foreign policy challenges await the Modi government, as power rivalry exacerbates in international politics that will bring disruptions to India both at domestic and international front.
Distressed Neighbourhood
India’s relations with neighbouring countries have been significant owing to their geographical proximity. Modi’s Neighbourhood First approach, aimed at shoring up India’s bilateral ties with the nations to offset China’s rise, has been a mixed bag of success. He has been deft in his responses to Pakistan, with instances such as the Uri surgical strikes and the Balakot air strikes through which he altered India’s conventional stance against Pakistan.
However, he has also suffered some policy mis-steps such as India’s ties with Nepal, which have exacerbated the complications of a difficult neighbourhood. On this front, Modi 2.0 could be more inclined to keep turning the screws on Islamabad, whether at the FATF, on terrorism or its support for the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Second Modi, would also be expected to manage the contradictions in the US-China relationship in the event of a complete breakdown of relationship between the two countries. Lastly Modi 2.0 needs to focus on harnessing ties with countries such as Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Maldives. Although the invite of the BIMSTEC leaders to the swearing in ceremony is a great diplomatic outreach, but to avoid China taking over its sphere of influence (which it is doing with the BRI project), India needs to act fast; and one way to do this is perhaps elevating ties, akin to a “Special strategic partnership.”
Indo-Pacific realm
Another highlight of the Modi administration is the carving out of a robust partnership with the United States to harness the capital and technology for India’s domestic development. Against the backdrop of China’s uprising as a revisionist power, the Modi government has shed off India’s past posturing of non-alignment policy and strategic autonomy and forged equitable partnerships not just with the US, but also its allies in the region including Japan, Australia and Vietnam.
But the growing proximity with the West, which became a springboard for India to reassert its regional primacy, a challenge would be to balance its Indo-Pacific and Eurasian strategies. While the Indo-Pacific would imply aligning with like-minded democracies to counter China, yet at the same with growing obstinacy of the Trump administration, it is imperative that India forges deeper partnership with Russia, where Russia’s overtures to Pakistan and growing dependence on China has caused some consternation in the South Bloc.
Outreach to Middle East
During his first tenure Modi had invested considerable political capital, time and resources to forge equitable partnerships with countries in the Middle East namely, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran and Israel. Through personal camaraderie and hard-nosed economic considerations, he has managed to befriend these leaders who are in a constant squabble with each other. But with the rising tensions about Iran coupled with the ongoing intra-Gulf crisis, comfortable assumptions about balancing the triad of Iran, Arab Gulf States and Israel will no longer suffice. It is imperative for Modi to have a stable Middle East that would serve India’s energy interests well. And in that case, an approach would require him to elevate these partnerships to a deeper level, amidst all the attendant consequences.
India Outbound
In conclusion
Thus, if Modi’s first tenure was all about expanding India’s sphere of influence and consolidating its preeminent strategic position, his second term should enable him to operationalise the dividends into practical outcomes. And for that it will require an acceleration of economic reforms along with building an institutional framework that can engage in long-term strategic thinking and thus, helping shape up India’s position in the international affairs.
India Outbound
June 6, 2019
source https://indiaoutbound.org/modi-2-0-and-what-does-it-mean-for-indias-foreign-policy/
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