The United States is currently in the middle of an upheaval. The chaotic aftermath of the US strike against Iran and a shock turn in President Donald trump’s impeachment drama are triggering a monumental Capitol Hill clash over trust and presidential power. Besides the raging uncertainty over the trial, the developments in the Middle East shifted the focus in Washington, even as Trump remains fixated as ever on the impeachment saga. He now faces a trial in the Senate, possibly in January, where he is likely to be acquitted in the Republican-controlled Senate.In theory, a two-thirds majority vote in the Senate would be required to convict Trump and remove him from office.
With no direct negotiations between the Senate leaders, combined with John R. Bolton’s (the former White House national security advisor) willingness to testify at Trump’s impeachment trial indeed puts a new face to the process. According to many, Bolton’s statement could spur a dramatic turn that could alter the political dynamic of the impeachment trial in the Senate where Trump’s presidency hangs in the balance. But that appears unlikely. First, given that Trump enjoys an 80% approval rate among Republicans, it is hard to see mass defections among the Senate Republicans. Further, the approval rate suggests that the Republicans will double-down on their far-right vision of America and stick with Trump, irrespective of the malfeasance that came to light.
Even the fact that opinion polls among people have fairly remained immobile signifies the growing inelasticity of American politics and demonstrates the support that Trump enjoys outside Congress. Consequently, on a purely tactical level this move,could actually end up enhancing his support base,instead of eroding it. All of these do indicate that there is no way to send Trump packing. But the fact that he is poised to win in 2020 and serve another four years, is what makes impeachment a warranted move.
In this regard, the Democrats have rightly sounded the bugle by holding an impeachment procedure against him. At the heart of Democrats case is the allegation that Trump tried to leverage a White House meeting and military aid, sought by Ukraine, to combat Russian military aggression, to pressure Ukrainian President Volody mr Zelensky to launch an investigation of former vice president Joe Biden and his son Hunter. Second, Trump also wanted Zelensky to investigate a debunked conspiracy theory, that Ukraine, not Russia, colluded with Democrats in the 2016 election. The premise on which the impeachment clause was included by James Madison and co. was to guard against the potential incapacity, negligence and perfidy of a President. Another dangerous possibility, according to them was that the “President might betray his trust to foreign powers.” Trump through all his high crimes and misdemeanors made his impeachment inevitable.
In all, impeachment nonetheless is a gamble for the Democrats as a full-blown trial distracts them from their core election agenda. But with the current dysfunction in American politics, impeachment almost becomes a shield against the dangers that a president like Trump poses. So even though impeachment might include partisanship, it ultimately asserts the supremacy of law in a political system.
India Outbound
January 9, 2019
source https://indiaoutbound.org/yes-trump-will-possibly-survive-impeachment/
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