India is a rising Asian and global power, however, its transformation is tempered by the China’s rapid ascension as a formidable source of political and economic clout. Within this context of power dynamics, India must secure and promote its national interests strategically in a grossly unbalanced Asian environment. India faces challenges from China in the following domains:
Military might: Chinese military forcespose a formidable threat, given its critical geographical advantages and superior communications/transportation infrastructure, especially since both countries have persistent border disputes and the emerging threat of China’s naval foray into the Indian Ocean. The disparities between the military might and spending of both countries is likely to widen, considering Chinese proclivity to use military force (for example, South China Sea dispute).
Diplomatic sway: Beijing’s significant influence in established international institutions like the UN Security Council, Nuclear Suppliers’ Group etc. and role in setting up organisations like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank or shaping the BRICS, accords opportunities to China to hamper India’s foreign policy goals, interests and voice regarding multilateral reforms and larger global issues. In 2016, China thwarted India’s entry into the NSG.
Regional influence: China’s alignment with Pakistan (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor; bolstering Pakistani military capabilities), deepening relations with other South Asian countries (Sri Lanka, Maldives, Nepal), provision of financial assistance and balance against India etc. has challenged India’s dominance in South Asia, amongst their neighbours.
Economic power: Chinese economic clout (aid and trade policies) globally can be used to pressure other countries to India’s detriment in international politics, especially in scenarios of clashing interests. In the past, Beijing punished Norway and South Korea with economic boycotts for being deemed unfriendly to Chinese interests and used to aid to further its foreign policy objectives in relations with Philippines.
Broadly, India has various potential strategic options and policy choices i.e. non-alignment, hedging, building indigenous military power and capabilities, forming regional partnerships and alignment with China or the United States. Ideally, India should pick the best out of these imperfect choices as a primary strategy and supplement with other complementary approaches as required.
Non-alignment as a strategy, hedging or alignment with China is unlikely to serve Indian national interests, considering Chinese power, proximity and policies already threaten India’s foreign interests and national security. The other choices i.e. building indigenous military power and forging regional partnerships can become necessary and complementary means of countering China, but are by themselves insufficient, because China is already wealthier and stronger than India or any combination of other Asian powers.
Given the current global scenario, India’s strategic interests will probably be best served via closer alignment with the United States. The US is the only country relatively stronger to China and both India and US share a common interest of counterbalancing China. In recent years, India has already been cultivating a deeper strategic relationship with the United States. This policy instinct has been a sound one, and such a partnership should be advanced even more. If forging closer ties with the United States becomes difficult, India could possibly secure a regional balancing strategy with other powers in the Indo-Pacific as an alternative approach. Such regional partnerships could potentially supplement an augmented U.S.-India alignment.
India Outbound
February 12, 2019
source https://indiaoutbound.org/asias-dynamic-geopolitical-balance/
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