Specificities of tackling the obesity menace in India

A burgeoning burden
 
Obesity refers to abnormal or excessive fat accumulation in the body that impairs health It is fundamentally caused by the imbalance between the consumption and expenditure of calories. (WHO). Several factors can be attributed to rising obesity levels in India, including abundance of food resulting from societal affluence, limited physical activities or sedentary lifestyles, cultural fixation with sweets, excessive use of fats in cooking or carbohydrates-rich diets and genetic factors.
 
The World Obesity Federation has warned that obesity-related lifestyle diseases like cancer, diabetes and heart conditions will cost India a whopping $13 billion annually by 2025, in the wake of continued increase in childhood obesity. The WHO has revealed that 8.7% of the Indian population (70 million) suffers from diabetes, even if they are not overweight. The percentage of Indians living with obesity is set to jump from 3.7% in 2014 to 5% in 2025. The rate of increase in obesity has far outstripped the decline in levels of under-nutrition.
 
According to the National Family Health Survey-4 (NFHS-2015-16), the number of obese people in the country have doubled in the last decade. In 2017, a WHO study showed that one in every 50 children in India is obese. The changes in physical activity and dietary patterns are a product of societal and environmental changes, related to the lack of policies to support the development of health, agriculture, urban planning, transport, environment as well as food processing, marketing, education and distribution.
 
Misconceptions
 
Sometimes, the twin paradoxical challenges of malnourishment and obesity exist within the same families. Malnourished women give birth to under-weight babies who are then overfed in childhood, leading to early onset of hypertension and diabetes. This is the Barker hypothesis, wherein individuals not receiving adequate nutrition in-utero, but have access to excess or even regular calorie intake later, are more likely to become overweight adults and are hence, susceptible to obesity-linked disorders/life-style and chronic diseases. The individual’s vital organs are unable to utilize the calories that leads to fat deposits (excess energy) in the body.
 
The Body Mass Index (BMI) is an internationally accepted clinical measure of obesity, originally designed to determine broader health trends among large groups of people. However, it is not meant for assessing the “healthy weight” of an individual, even though it is widely used for that purpose, as a means of enforcing a particular body type as “normal.” While there is not enough research done on the scientific validity of BMI, some scholars have questioned the underlying mathematical logic.
 
The BMI formula requires dividing the individual’s weight by the square of the height to determine the categories of “underweight, normal, overweight or obese.” Thus, it assumes a two-dimensional perspective while ignoring crucial factors like the body frame, tissue composition, bone density etc. Forget variance across regions and countries, two people with identical heights cannot possibly weigh the same in all instances.
 
Role of diets
 
The quick transition from being underweight to over-weight, caused by the consumption of energy-dense but nutrient-poor foodsis unhealthy. The unaffordability of healthy food options like whole grains, fresh fruits and vegetables can lead to social inequalities and impose limits upon efforts to reduce the burden of obesity. On the other hand, the trend of low-calorie fad diets (Paleo diet, Ketogenic diet, Intermittent fasting etc.) to counter obesity and weight issues, often endorsed by popular figures, is especially harmful for people in the long-run, unless adopted under medical advice, due to deprivation of essential nutrients. Such diets are not tailor-made for specific nutrient needs of individual body types.
 
The WHO’s report titled Assessing and Managing Children at Primary Healthcare Facilities to Prevent Overweight and Obesity in the Context of the Double Burden of Malnutrition regarding assessments of eating habits and counselling, highlight some simple dietary changes to help prevent obesity. It endorses whole grains over processed cereals as a major source of energy and all essential nutrients, dal for protein, avoidance of binge eating, sugar intake less than 10% of total calorie consumption to maintain normal weight, limited consumption of visible fats that comprise 15% of total calories consumed and use of a combination of cooking oils.
 
Collective action
 
According to Regional Director WHO South East Asia, Poonam Khetrapal Singh, governments must tax sugary drinks, re-invest revenues in health-related activities and insist on accurate food labeling to enable consumers to make informed choices. The Indian government and FSSAI are likely to implement packaging and advertising norms for packaged junk food and beverages (soft drinks, energy drinks and other sugar sweetened beverages). Such investments can help achieve the WHO’s 2025 targets to halt rising obesity and achieve 25% reduction in mortality caused by NCDs.
 
India boasts of being one of the world’s largest consumer markets and producers of fruits, vegetables, milk and seafood. However, it historically lacks the infrastructure to process raw materials into high-value food products for domestic and international sale. The consumption of fats, sugars, oils, animal products and packaged/processed foods have surged since 2011, according to India’s National Council of Applied Economic Research, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Such soaring rates raise major questions about India’s flourishing unorganized food sector and the government’s billion-dollar campaign favoring foreign processed foods in the Indian market.
 
The key to countering obesity risks through regulation of dietary habits and lifestyle choices of people is spreading awareness and education. In addition, the regulatory frameworks around food advertising and labelling must be strengthened, especially in case of products that are targeted towards children. Moreover, transformation of food systems at the national and global level can help alleviate the economic, health and environmental impacts of unsustainable food production and consumption practices.
 
Aditi Rukhaiyar
February 1, 2019
 

source https://indiaoutbound.org/specificities-of-tackling-the-obesity-menace-in-india/

Evolving Indo-Mauritian Relations

Indo-Mauritian relations are not shaped by geo-polity but by a deep-rooted and rich tradition of shared religious, social, cultural, linguistic, educational and historical heritage. Diplomatic relations between India and Mauritius were established in 1948 as Mauritius maintained contacts with India throughout the periods of successive Dutch, French and British occupation. These can be traced back to the 1820s, when Indian workers began working at the sugar plantations in Mauritius.
 
Slavery was abolished by the British in 1834 and on November 2nd, the first batch of Indian workers were brought to Mauritius on the “Atlas” ship, as indentured labourers. Today, November 2nd is observed as “Aapravasi Day” in Mauritius. Between 1834 and early 20th century, approximately half a million Indians came to Mauritius and roughly 2/3rd of them settled there permanently. Today, 68% of the Mauritian population is of Indian descent.
 
Gandhi briefly visited Mauritius in 1901 and in 1907, sent Barrister Manillal Doctor visited to help the Mauritian Indian community organise themselves and lay the foundation for their struggle to obtain political and social rights. March 12, the day the Dandi March started, has been declared the National Day of Mauritius as a tribute to Gandhi. On the same day, in 1968, Mauritius also gained independence.
 
The first Prime Minister and Father of the Nation, Sir Seewoosagur Ramgoolam accorded centrality to India in the Mauritian foreign policy and successive Mauritian leaders ensured that India continued to occupy a significant position in Mauritian foreign policy and activities. High-level official visits have constituted a critical part of Indo-Mauritian bilateral relations. A wide range of MoUs and agreements have been signed between both countries across sectors like taxation, science and technology, environment, tourism, air services, medicine etc.
 
In the last forty years or so, India has extended multiple credit lines to Mauritius for assistance in developing infrastructure, skills, human resources as well as capacity building. During PM Modi’s visit to Mauritius in March 2015, a Line of Credit of $500 million was announced for the development of civilian infrastructure projects.Currently, eight Indian PSEs (public sector enterprises)are operating in Mauritius.
 
India has been the largest trading partner since 2007, the largest exporter of goods and services to Mauritius. India exports petroleum products, electrical machinery, textiles, cereals and pharmaceuticals to Mauritius and imports precious/semi-precious stones, pearls, steel, iron and optical, photographic and precision instruments.
 
India and Mauritius have been major investments and trading partners. Indian exports reach $1 billion annually while imports from Mauritius are usually valued at $10 million. The FDI (foreign direct investment) from India to Mauritius has been close 2 billion in Mauritian rupees in the last five years. Until recently, Mauritius was India’s top source of FDI, given a 1982 tax treaty that exempted Mauritian residents from paying capital gains tax on transfer of Indian shares. This treaty was amended in 2016 to check misuse of funds, due to round-tripping by Indians via Mauritius.
 
In order to woo investors, the Mauritian government has taken multiple steps, including the lowering of corporate tax to 3%, on income from exports, air/sea freight rebates on exports and a 8-year tax holiday will be offered to specific companies, for hi-tech manufacturing (medical devices, pharmaceuticals). A national e-licensing system has been introduced to ensure seamless processing of permits and single-point entry for the application, payment and determination of business licenses.
 
The Prime Minister of Mauritius, Pravind Kumar Jugnauth, visited India, leading 400 high-level Mauritian delegates. He was the chief guest at the 15th Pravasi Bharatiya Divas and a guest of honour at the Republic Day celebrations. During a business interaction organised by FICCI, Confederation of Indian Industry and Assocham in Mumbai, the Mauritian PM announced that both countries are expected to sign a comprehensive economic cooperation and partnership agreement or CECPA soon, bolstered by strong will on both ends.
 
Since the revival of negotiations after two years, discussions have centered around the potential for growth of the Mauritian economy. Other areas of discussion included cooperation over bilateral development projects and new proposals for partnerships across critical sectors like health, disaster management and energy. The ways to expand collaboration in aspects of
“blue economy” were also discussed.
 
In terms of possibilities of collaboration in Africa, vis-à-vis the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor, the Mauritian PM said that the country is crafting a strategy to position itself as a fulcrum for investors and tap into opportunities in Africa. “We have engaged actively in recalibrating our economy to position Mauritius as an international financial centre for foreign investments into entire Africa. Mauritius will offer companies the anchorage to manage their African operations in a safe jurisdiction.”
 
Thus, both countries are seeking to leverage their long-standing and time-tested relationship, grounded in strong emotional and cultural bonds, as well as strategic considerations, to evolve and strengthen avenues of collaborations for mutual economic and sustainable development.
 
India Outbound
January 31, 2019
 

source https://indiaoutbound.org/evolving-indo-mauritian-relations/

India and Argentina: bilateral relations

India and Argentina share cordial relations, spanning across political, economic, technological, scientific and cultural cooperation. The Indian Trade Commission was opened in 1943 in Buenos Aires, which was converted in 1949, into one of the first Indian embassies in South America. An Argentinian Consulate was established in the 1920s in Calcutta and was transferred to Delhi as an Embassy in 1950. In recent times, bilateral ties have been characterised by multiple high-level political visits and signing of agreements and treaties.
 

At the international level, both countries have supported each other on multiple multilateral issues and endorsed candidatures to the UN and other international bodies. Importantly, India has always supported Argentina over the sovereignty issue of the Malvinas Islands. The following table provides a glimpse of the commercial relations, vis-à-vis bilateral trade, between both countries.

Indian exports to Argentina was valued at approximately $700 million in 2017-18. Exports mainly consisted of ceramic, vehicles and auto parts, machinery, lubricants, sound/image devices, organic chemicals and garments. India imported petroleum, ferroalloys, leather, soybean oil, sunflower oil and wool from Argentina, valued cumulatively at $2.2. billion.
 
Ahead of Argentinian President Mauricio Macri’s visit to India in February 2019, along with a high-level ministerial and business delegation, India is keen to expand trade relations by seeking market access for textiles, apparel, home furnishing products and folding bicycles to triple exports to the country, with additional shipments valued at $1.5 billion. India is also interested in the promotion of ethnic products like Khadi and Alphonso mangoes.
 
Bicycle components and sophisticated high-end bicycles alone offer a potentially $1 billion worth export opportunity for India. Another $300-350 million can come from the textiles and apparel industry. The exporters of handicrafts, office stationery and home furnishing products are already pushing for the removal of non-tariff barriers (custom clearances etc.) to help boost current exports from $10 million to $100 million. Indian exporters are also demanding a 25% reduction in the import duty on sports equipment.
 
“Our trade deficit with Argentina is because of import of agricultural products. We can export low value-added products and construction material like PVC pipes and roof tiles. Our ceramic exports were doing well there but Argentina has applied anti-dumping duty on Indian ceramic and vitrified tiles,” said Mohit Singla, chairman of the Trade Promotion Council of India, an organisation under the Department of Commerce.
 
While the Argentinian President’s visit will be a celebration of 70 years of bilateral relationship, it will also present an opportunity to deepen and expand cooperation across multiple sectors – renewable energy, nuclear energy, space and agriculture, aviation, mining (lithium, gold and copper), pharmaceuticals and automobiles. Technology will be a crucial component, especially in the form of radar, nuclear and defence components.
 
Several agreements are expected to be signed to facilitate partnerships, especially in two areas of critical importance to both countries i.e. food and energy security. Under food security, opportunities for exploring technological cooperation in the agricultural sector will be explored. Argentina has developed cutting-edge technologies that can help India improve its agricultural productivity and reduce losses in post-harvest farm produce. Importantly, Argentina is seeking to diversify its trade basket as almost 90% of Argentinian exports to India currently consists of only soybean oil. Discussions are ongoing between both countries across various projects. Argentina has introduced new products like apples and pears in India.
 
Both countries are in talks to develop shale gas. Currently, the government players hold exclusive rights over the exploitation of unconventional resources. In 2014, ONGC Videsh Ltd. signed an MoU with a major Argentinian oil producing company i.e. YPF S.A. Both companies are exploring avenues of collaboration in the upstream sector in India, Argentina and other countries.
 
Argentina is a member of the International Solar Alliance, which is an initiative by PM Modi to foster South-South cooperation. Thus, solar energy has emerged as a new area of focus between both countries. Rooftop solar plants, electric cars etc. require batteries and most advanced storage systems are lithium-ion based. In this context, mining of lithium becomes crucial for energy security.
 
India imports almost 100% of these batteries and the Argentinian government has allowed FDI in the mining sector. A consortium of three PSU companies (National Aluminum Company-NALCO, Hindustan Copper-HCL and Mineral Exploration Corp Ltd.-MECL), named Khanji Bidesh India Ltd. will visit Argentina to explore lithium mining opportunities. This consortium has been formed by the Indian government to identify, explore, acquire, develop and process strategic minerals outside India.
 
A bilateral agreement for Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy had been inked in 2009 and implementation will take place soon. Under this, Argentina has offered to establish small nuclear plants in India to increase the share of nuclear power in the country’s energy mix. Technical, scientific and commercial collaborations will take place. Both countries are keen to leverage their nuclear expertise for mutual benefit. Currently, a radioisotope production plant is being built at the Bhabha Atomic Centre in Mumbai, using low enrichment uranium (LEU), through a process developed by the National Atomic Energy Commission (CNEA) of Argentina.
 
Thus, there is massive scope for cooperation between Argentina and India that could result in mutual economic, technological and development benefits.
 
India Outbound
January 30, 2019
 

source https://indiaoutbound.org/india-and-argentina-bilateral-relations/

Boom in Indian thermal coal imports

India is one of the world’s largest consumers of coal and coal is among the top five commodities imported by India. 2018 recorded the fastest growth in thermal coal imports since 2014, as it rose by 19% to around 170 million tonnes, based on rising demands from the cement and small and medium-scale industries in India. As of December 2018, the value of all coal imports was 1.72 trillion Indian rupees or $24.25 billion i.e. 28.7% higher than 2017.
 
The increased demand was also fueled by restrictions imposed upon the use of petroleum coke (a dirtier alternative to coal) in some parts of the country. The consumption of petroleum coke fell by about 15% in 2018, according to government data from the coal and trade ministries. The import of coking coal, mainly used for the manufacture of steel, has risen the most since 2015, with a 14% increase since 2017, at around 52 million tonnes in 2018.
 
37.5% of all thermal coal imports were handled by the ports of Kandla, Mundra and Krishnapatnam. The increase in coal imports has come after two consecutive years of decline and efforts by PM Narendra Modi’s government to cut imports in order to reduce the country’s trade deficits. India’s trade gap has been negatively impacting the valuation of the Indian Rupee. In 2018, it was the worst performing Asian currency.
 
Country-wise share of Indian thermal coal imports

While the Indian trade deficit might have increased as a result of the rising coal imports, this boom has benefitted international miners like the Australian Whitehaven Coal, Indonesian Adaro Energy and American Peabody Energy Corp. American thermal coal burns better in comparison to Indonesian coal and in 2018, the imports of the former almost doubled to 12.46 million tonnes.
 
If the prices of coal reach the peak levels of 2018, American coal might become popular in India again. However, Indian buyers prefer cheaper varieties of coal (due to lower freight costs), from countries like Indonesia, and this trend is likely to continue in 2019. According to the Adani Group, which handles about 33% of India’s imported coal had predicted in 2017, a reasonable rise in imports until the fiscal year 2021. This would be a result of the challenges vis-à-vis rail transportation, affecting the Indian domestic coal industry.
 
For international miners, India will become a key market in 2019, given lowered Chinese demand due to the country’s “war on pollution.” However, increase in the consumption of coal is bound to neutralize the progress made by India in terms of being one of the economies that is dominating the global landscape of renewable energy, especially solar energy. The 2018 Climatescope Report did highlight the challenges that India would face in energy transition, especially in terms of existing coal-fired plants and expansion of coal capacity.
 
India Outbound
January 29, 2019
 

source https://indiaoutbound.org/boom-in-indian-thermal-coal-imports/

Assessing Child Malnutrition at the Parliamentary Constituency level

A new study, supported by the Harvard Centre for Population and Development Studies and Tata Trusts, has used data from the National Family Health Survey 2016 to develop and apply two geographic information systems methodologies to provide estimates of four child malnutrition indicators i.e. stunting, wasting, underweight and anemia across the 543 parliamentary constituencies in the country.
 
The monitoring and surveillance of health and well-being indicators in India usually focus on states and districts. Prominent sources of data like the National Family Health Survey 2016 (NFHS-4),the NITI Aayog Aspirational Districts Programme etc. Report district-level outcomes, thereby making the district a unit of interest and evidence-based intervention in policy discourse. The increased policy focus on districts is cyclical as it necessitates the collection of more data at the district level.
 
The parliamentary constituency (PC) is a decentralized geographical unit that holds substantial political influence in India because these are represented by the Members of the Parliament of the Lok Sabha, directly elected by the people. This study emphasises upon the need to focus on PC-level data, as unlike districts, there is direct governmental accountability in case of PCs, since MPs are directly responsible for the policy vision and implementation as well as well-being of their constituents.
 
Other than the direct representation of people, PCs hold relevance because of the resource allocations by the national government. Under the 1993 Members of Parliament Local Area Development Scheme (MPLADS), each MP may receive up to ₹ 5 crores annually for undertaking development projects in their respective PCs (MoSPI 2017a). In order to determine appropriate interventions, the MP will require current and accurate economic, infrastructural and demographic data/estimates specific to the PC.
 
However, the lack of PC-level data shifts the policy discourse away from PCs, thereby discouraging data collection at that level. The proposed novel methodologies aim to address this data gap, by generating child malnutrition estimates at the PC-level, using data from three main sources i.e. the NFHS-4, the global demographic and health surveys (DHS) conducted across a wide range of low- and middle-income countries every five years and the boundary shapefiles for PCs and districts i.e.the “India–Map of Parliamentary Constituencies (2014).”
 
These can perform three functions. (1) Presenting a state-of-the-art geographic information system-based methodology to use district-level estimates and create a “crosswalk” to generate PC-level estimates (2) Presenting a method of generating PC-level estimates by directly aggregating individual data for instances wherein individual data can be linked to their PCs (3) Applying these methodologies to rank PCs based on child malnutrition indicators and assessing patterns of PC variability across them.
 
Three salient findings can be attributed to this study.
 

• Prevalence of the four indicators of interest is highly variable across PCs and state-level analysis suggests that the relative importance of PC-level data varies across states

• Moderate/high correlations between malnutrition indicators at the PC-level indicate that several PCs experience a multiple burden of child malnutrition that must be addressed concurrently

• Several PCs in Madhya Pradesh and Jharkhand with high prevalence represent the highest priority for health interventions while other PCs show low prevalence for all indicators. These represent positive deviant PCs that should be investigated to elucidate the best practices for child nutrition in a particular state

 
Karnataka, Maharashtra and Odisha have PCs in the top and bottom two quintiles across many indicators. The substantial PC-level and intra-state variations across child malnutrition indicators can be attributed to the underlying distribution of risk factors (for example, household poverty – PCs with large proportions of poor households show high prevalence of child malnutrition). The proposed methodology can be extended to estimate outcomes at other geopolitical levels like assembly constituencies (ACs) as well. MLAs represent smaller geographical units than MPs so better-informed local interventions can increase accountability for both, MLAs and MPs.
 
The financial resources (MPLADS) also impact the occurrence of child malnutrition at the PC-level. The MPLADS can potentially exert significant influence over the PC-level health outcomes, since “preference is given to works relating to national priorities, such as … public health” (MoSPI 2016).The distinct nutritional profiles for each PC entail the need for interventions to cater to local contexts. Programmes like the SPARC, Parliamentary Research Service (PRS), and Legislative Assistants to Members of Parliament (LAMP)can support MPs in making informed policy and financial decisions.
 
Within the context of political business cycles, defined as the “increased spending by governments just before elections in the hope of staying power”, the role of MPs is particularly significant vis-v-is MPLADS spending. MPs vying for re-election in 2014 strategically spent the bulk of their allotted MPLADS funds towards the end of their term (Blair 2017). The large PC-specific variations can help understand the magnitude of differences across health and development indicators and the extent to which these differences are a consequence of PC-specific processes, as opposed to reflecting endogenous characteristics.
 
This study can complement policy discourse with data and timely evidence at the local level, thereby empowering MPs to target their goals (of the POSHAN Abhiyan programme and other nutrition interventions) effectively and the constituents to ask the right questions. The level of awareness and demands of the constituents can significantly ensure more proactive and consistent implementation of MPLADS funds, governed by development needs rather than political motives.
 
India Outbound
January 28, 2019
 

source https://indiaoutbound.org/assessing-child-malnutrition-at-the-parliamentary-constituency-level/

Policy challenges underlying sustainable economic growth

The report titled, World Economic Situation and Prospects 2019, presents an uncertain and potentially unstable outlook for global economic growth and sustainability in 2019, given the trends, tendencies and risks of the past years. In such a scenario, the prospects for global macro-economic development need to be strengthened, alongside fundamental transformations to sustainably boost global production and consumption systems.
 
According to the report, policy imperatives will play a critical role within this scenario, given the challenges underlying multilateral approaches to global policy-making. There is a growing realisation that the benefits of increasing economic integration and trade liberalisation have not been equitably shared between and within countries, thereby causing exacerbations in income and wealth inequalities. In many instances, these have led to an undermining of national sovereignty and limiting of policy spaces.
 
Multilateralism is being threatened at a time when the need for international cooperation and governance is increasingly becoming more important. The institutions and agreements that glue together the global multilateral economic system have been under increased pressures, vis-à-vis international trade, development finance and climate change. The risks and uncertainties underlying the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development are inherently global in nature and demand collective and cooperative action.
 
The report further states that a closely integrated world economy with internationally agreed rules and institutions is vital for ensuring well-functioning markets, resolving disagreements and ensuring stability.This entails the need to fortify an effective, inclusive, flexible and responsive multilateral system that can play a central role in advancing sustainable development globally, while responding adequately to legitimate concerns.
 
The world’s multilateral trading system must be in alignment with the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, creating an inclusive, transparent and development-friendly framework for international trade. Some examples of this include – progress in international tax cooperation to enable all countries to receive fair share of taxes from international companies (especially critical for the poorer countries) and greater international cooperation vis-à-vis green technology to halt global warming via affordable technology transfer to support transition towards sustainable production in many developing countries, especially the least developed countries (LDCs).
 
The report calls for complementing effective national tax policies with international tax cooperation. The international community must work towards a fair, sustainable and modern international tax system that is supported by pro-growth tax policies. Related efforts must be universal and multilateral in approach and scope, while taking into consideration increasing global digitalization as well as the differing needs and capacities of countries.
 
Thus, countries must be able to adopt effective tax policies that enhance domestic public finance for sustainable development. Domestic policies must focus on effective budgeting, mobilization and utilization of public resources to provide essential public goods and services and strengthened infrastructure, while ensuring reductions in inequalities and supporting overall macro-economic stability.
 
In order to successfully deliver environmentally sustainable growth, fundamental shifts in policy and consumption are required. Economic decision-making must be grounded in the alleviation of negative risks of climate change by reducing emissions via tools like carbon pricing measures, energy efficiency regulations, minimum performance standards, building codes and reductions in socially inefficient fossil fuel subsidy regimes.
 
The government must promote policies that reduce the demand for carbon-intensive services and fossil fuel-based technology, especially in cases of high reliance, via economic diversification. The use of new energy-saving technologies must be encouraged via incentives like research and development subsidies. In order to effectively manage a country’s wealth of natural resources, the domestic government must develop and implement far-sighted policy strategies.
 
This demands a comprehensive approach to commodity management that is embedded in a broader sustainable development strategy. Returns from commodities can become a vital source of revenue for supporting broader access to healthcare and education, investment in critical infrastructure, provision of crucial social protection services and promotion of economic diversification. Diversification is necessary for strengthening economic and environmental resilience. Key elements include robust institutions, transparency, counter-cyclical policies and targeted investment in human capital.
 
A major barrier to the achievement of the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda is the prevalent levels of global inequality. Building access to robust education (quality) and employment policies (expanded social protection, higher minimum wages) as well as rural infrastructure (public investment in transport, agriculture and energy) must be central to efforts aimed at alleviating poverty, reducing inequalities, narrowing the rural-urban divide and raising overall living standards, of those at the lowest rungs of the income ladder.
 
All the countries have a shared policy priority to rapidly and collaboratively resolve any trade disagreements and the resulting policy uncertainties, rather than raise harmful trade barriers that would destabilize an already slowed-down global economy. All economies must adopt measures that boost the potential for output growth in order to enhance inclusivity and strengthen the fiscal and financial buffers, within an environment of high debt burdens and tighter financial conditions.
 
India Outbound
January 25, 2019

source https://indiaoutbound.org/policy-challenges-underlying-sustainable-economic-growth/

Economic and Sustainability Outlook for 2019

The United Nations has released the World Economic Situation and Prospects 2019 report that primarily highlights the prospects for global macro-economic development as well as the uncertainties, risks and implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. In this context, the build-up of short-term risks that can potentially disrupt economic activity and long-term development, will also make it harder to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.
 
Vulnerable countries, with large macro-economic imbalances and high levels of external debt are particularly susceptible to such disruptions. The narrowing policy spaces across the world entails that external economic shocks can severely impact long-term global growth and have long-lasting implications for socio-economic conditions. Thus, increasing downside risks and vulnerabilities threaten the short-term sustainability of economic growth.
 
2018 saw a significant escalation in trade tensions across the world’s largest economies with increasing disputes being raised under WTO’s settlement mechanism. The momentum of global trade growth has softened, as direct subsidies and stimulus measures have offset the negative impacts on China and the US. However, heightened tensions and additional tariff impositions has put the global trade outlook and economy under considerable risk.
 
These could lead to investment slowdowns, higher consumer prices, decline in business confidence and severe disruptions to global value chains. This will specifically hold true for East Asian economies, wherein the exporters are deeply embedded in the trade supply chains between the US and China. The higher consumer prices could lead to reduced demand for commodities, thereby impacting commodity-exporters from Latin America and Africa.
 
Emerging economies and specific industries are vulnerable to aggravated financial uncertainties and debt distress, given the squeeze in profits, possibly caused by rising prices of imports, high debt-servicing costs etc. Subdued trade growth for a protracted time period will weigh down productivity growth and long-term prospects as trade channels are interlinked with investments. Productivity growth is supported by trade via economies of scale, access to inputs, acquisition of knowledge and technology etc. Trade in services contributes to inclusiveness, resilience and diversification.
 
Abrupt tightening of global financial conditions can spark localised financial turmoil. 2018 witnessed heightened bouts of market volatilities caused by rising policy uncertainties and deepening country-specific vulnerabilities. The escalating trade tensions, debts and geopolitical risks as well as oil market developments and shifting expectations over the American monetary policy impacted investor sentiments. Given this uncertainty, any sudden developments or shifts in sentiment could trigger sharp market corrections and disorderly capital reallocations. Rapidly rising interest rates and strengthening of the dollar could deepen domestic financial troubles for some countries, thus increasing risks of debt distress.
 
This market contagion could potentially become more widespread as investors become wary of vulnerable countries with high current account and fiscal deficits, large external financing needs, lack of transparency in debt obligations or limited policy buffers. Discrete shifts in investor confidence places emerging markets under great risks, regardless of underlying fundamentals. Financial stress can spread amongst countries through banking channels and other financial market linkages.
 
Monetary policy adjustments in developed economies like the US based on increased interest rates and import tariffs, or, policy easing in China, in response to inflationary pressures, could trigger sharp tightening of global liquidity conditions, with repercussions on real economic activity, global/regional spillovers and financial imbalances. If European policymakers fail to finalise legal and regulatory arrangements around BREXIT, global financial stability is at further risks, given the prominence of European banks in driving global cross-border financial flows.
 
Intensifying climate risks and potential shocks are threatening the economic prospects of developed and developing countries and severely damage crucial infrastructure, as large communities are susceptible to displacement. The human costs of disasters are borne overwhelmingly by low-income and lower-middle-income countries. The small developing island countries (SIDS) are particularly vulnerable to climate change risks, especially marine inundation of coastal infrastructure, if global warming reaches 1.5°C. Related damage to critical transport infrastructure (ports, airports) can impact international trade as well as sustainable development prospects.
 
The underlying long-term vulnerability of global economic growth endangers the financial, social and environmental sustainability of countries. Rising private and public debts and service obligations already constitute a heavy burden on government finances. In case of developing economies, this has not been matched by equivalent expansions of productive assets, given large infrastructure gaps, degradation of existing capital and hampered productivity.
 
Global social development is severely impeded in regions with high levels of poverty and inequality and weak per-capita income growth. To eradicate poverty by 2030, double-digit economic growth is required in Africa, alongside dramatic reductions in income inequality and poverty rates.
 
Importantly, fundamental and rapid shifts are imperative, in the way in which global economic growth is powered. This implies a decline in CO2 emissions well before 2030. The current reductions in the greenhouse gas intensity of production and the transition towards environmentally sustainable production/consumption is not sufficient, as carbon emissions continue to rise and accelerate climate change. Only an urgent focus on this can avert further damage to the ecosystems and livelihoods of the global population.
 
Thus, fundamental transformations, supported by myriad policy actions and accelerated by technological innovations, alongside massive changes in behaviours and attitudes.
 
India Outbound
January 24, 2019

 

source https://indiaoutbound.org/economic-and-sustainability-outlook-for-2019/